Every forecast is scored once its time comes, including the misses. A 90% range should hold about 9 times out of 10, so roughly one in ten is expected to miss.
v2 (HAR-RV-J) has been forecasting live since 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC (1 day). Live results need about two weeks before they mean much; the out-of-sample backtest is the longer test.
Latest: 88.9% held over the window (288 forecasts, includes backtest). 199 misses in the last 7 days (30 live). Within ±12 of 90% is consistent with the target.
| In | Scored | Hit rate | Interval score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 285 | 89.5% | 2.628 |
| 4 hours | 249 | 79.9% | 6.425 |
| 24 hours | 9 | 100.0% | 6.463 |
| In | Scored | Hit rate | Interval score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 317 | 84.9% | 3.038 |
| 4 hours | 281 | 76.2% | 6.181 |
| 24 hours | 41 | 100.0% | 7.344 |
One email when the new model has two weeks of live forecasts: how often the ranges held, the misses, and what changed. Nothing else.
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Times in UTC. Raw numbers per model and horizon are also available as JSON at /api/live-stats.